2024年3月13日发(作者：盍华容)
少年易学老难成，一寸光阴不可轻 - 百度文库
9 startup ideas that were ahead of their time
生不逢时：9个因太超前而夭折的创新
Venture investors are fond of their truisms, to the point that the startup world
is riddled with clichés. But few cut deeper than the one about timing: “The
only thing worse than being wrong is being early.” It’s impossible to count the
number of startups which failed because the world wasn’t ready for them yet.
Since the dotcom bubble, many of the era’s biggest flops have been revived in
different forms to become viable businesses.
风险投资家非常爱说一些经验之谈，甚至整个创业界都流行着一些金科玉律。最
经典的莫过于一个关于创业时机的经验之谈：“唯一比犯错更严重的就是过于超
前。”因创业理念太超前而失败的例子简直数不胜数。不过自从“.com”泡沫
破裂后，许多当年失败得一塌糊涂的点子，又以其它形式重新焕发了青春，成为
生机勃勃的企业。
Today’s revivals have a few key things going for them this time around. For
starters, it’s a matter of simple numbers: In 2000, only 43% of Americans
were using the Internet. Today, 86% of the country is online and more than
half of the population carries the Internet around in their pocket. The
addressable audience for a Web startup is much larger.
这些创业理念之所以成功复苏，也因为它们现在具备了一些关键的要素。首先来
了解一串简单的数字：2000年，美国只有43%的人使用互联网。如今美国网民
人数已占总人口的86%，移动互联网用户更是达到美国总人口的一半以上。也
就是说，网络创业公司的受众群体要比以往大得多。
Further, logistics networks from the likes of FedEx FDX -0.54% and UPS UPS
-0.05% are more developed, more efficient, and more cost-effective than they
1
少年易学老难成，一寸光阴不可轻 - 百度文库
were in the late 1990s. Lastly, thanks to cloud computing and open source
software, the cost of starting up has shrunk from millions of dollars to
hundreds of thousands or less. This lowers the stakes for starting a business,
which means early-stage failures aren’t costing investors millions.
另外，联邦快递和UPS等物流网络也比90年代末更发达、更高效、价格更低。
最后，随着云计算和开源软件的兴起，网络创业的成本从几百万美元减少到几千
美元甚至更低。这大大降低了创业的风险，也就意味着早期阶段的创业失败不会
导致投资人损失数百万美金。
Below, several good ideas which were simply ahead of their time.
以下是一些当年因过于超前而失败的例子。
Same-day delivery
当日送达
Uber has turned smartphones into remote controls for life. Press a button and
just about anything you want will show up—booze, groceries, manicures,
flowers, even weed. Amazon AMZN 0.87% and Google GOOG -1.23% now
offer same-day delivery, with countless startup—including Uber—hot on their
heels.
Uber已经把智能手机变成了生活的遥控器。只要按个按钮，你想要的几乎任何
东西都可以送到家门——比如酒水、美甲、鲜花乃至大麻。亚马逊和谷歌现在
也提供了当日送达服务，包括Uber在内的不计其数的创业公司紧随其后。
Same-day delivery was the premise of famous Web 1.0 blow-ups
and Webvan. lost hundreds of millions in value in the dotcom
crash; Webvan lost over a billion in investor money. They failed because they
didn’t make money on their services. Today, ’s co-founder has
revived the idea with which has a small customer base of
under 100,000, but has grown slowly and steadily since 2005 on its own
profits, supporting a staff of 130. The recent influx of new startups offering
2
2024年3月13日发(作者：盍华容)
少年易学老难成，一寸光阴不可轻 - 百度文库
9 startup ideas that were ahead of their time
生不逢时：9个因太超前而夭折的创新
Venture investors are fond of their truisms, to the point that the startup world
is riddled with clichés. But few cut deeper than the one about timing: “The
only thing worse than being wrong is being early.” It’s impossible to count the
number of startups which failed because the world wasn’t ready for them yet.
Since the dotcom bubble, many of the era’s biggest flops have been revived in
different forms to become viable businesses.
风险投资家非常爱说一些经验之谈，甚至整个创业界都流行着一些金科玉律。最
经典的莫过于一个关于创业时机的经验之谈：“唯一比犯错更严重的就是过于超
前。”因创业理念太超前而失败的例子简直数不胜数。不过自从“.com”泡沫
破裂后，许多当年失败得一塌糊涂的点子，又以其它形式重新焕发了青春，成为
生机勃勃的企业。
Today’s revivals have a few key things going for them this time around. For
starters, it’s a matter of simple numbers: In 2000, only 43% of Americans
were using the Internet. Today, 86% of the country is online and more than
half of the population carries the Internet around in their pocket. The
addressable audience for a Web startup is much larger.
这些创业理念之所以成功复苏，也因为它们现在具备了一些关键的要素。首先来
了解一串简单的数字：2000年，美国只有43%的人使用互联网。如今美国网民
人数已占总人口的86%，移动互联网用户更是达到美国总人口的一半以上。也
就是说，网络创业公司的受众群体要比以往大得多。
Further, logistics networks from the likes of FedEx FDX -0.54% and UPS UPS
-0.05% are more developed, more efficient, and more cost-effective than they
1
少年易学老难成，一寸光阴不可轻 - 百度文库
were in the late 1990s. Lastly, thanks to cloud computing and open source
software, the cost of starting up has shrunk from millions of dollars to
hundreds of thousands or less. This lowers the stakes for starting a business,
which means early-stage failures aren’t costing investors millions.
另外，联邦快递和UPS等物流网络也比90年代末更发达、更高效、价格更低。
最后，随着云计算和开源软件的兴起，网络创业的成本从几百万美元减少到几千
美元甚至更低。这大大降低了创业的风险，也就意味着早期阶段的创业失败不会
导致投资人损失数百万美金。
Below, several good ideas which were simply ahead of their time.
以下是一些当年因过于超前而失败的例子。
Same-day delivery
当日送达
Uber has turned smartphones into remote controls for life. Press a button and
just about anything you want will show up—booze, groceries, manicures,
flowers, even weed. Amazon AMZN 0.87% and Google GOOG -1.23% now
offer same-day delivery, with countless startup—including Uber—hot on their
heels.
Uber已经把智能手机变成了生活的遥控器。只要按个按钮，你想要的几乎任何
东西都可以送到家门——比如酒水、美甲、鲜花乃至大麻。亚马逊和谷歌现在
也提供了当日送达服务，包括Uber在内的不计其数的创业公司紧随其后。
Same-day delivery was the premise of famous Web 1.0 blow-ups
and Webvan. lost hundreds of millions in value in the dotcom
crash; Webvan lost over a billion in investor money. They failed because they
didn’t make money on their services. Today, ’s co-founder has
revived the idea with which has a small customer base of
under 100,000, but has grown slowly and steadily since 2005 on its own
profits, supporting a staff of 130. The recent influx of new startups offering
2