2024年3月30日发(作者：堂春燕)

iPhone增量式改变或将令苹果面临风险

The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It may also prove the

moment to dump Apple shares.

新iPhone一定会打破之前的销售纪录。除此之外，它也提醒我们，可能到了卖出苹

果(Apple)股票的时候了。

Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined,

Apple executives have joked internally according to recent trial testimony. And it

isn't crazy to believe exponential growth can continue for at least one more.

Combine pent-up demand among existing iPhone users looking to upgrade, with

the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the world's

largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results.

据前不久的庭审证词显示，苹果高管在公司内部开玩笑时曾说，每款新iPhone的销

量都是之前所有几代产品的销量之和。认为至少另一款iPhone的销量也将呈现出这种增

长模式并非不切实际的想法。那些想让手里iPhone更新换代的用户具有潜在需求，再加

上新机型可能最终将与全球最大无线运营商中国移动(China Mobile)的网络兼容，基于这

两个因素，投资者可以期待新iPhone异常火爆的销售情况。

But the device setting those records is itself likely to be just an incremental

upgrade over its predecessor, the iPhone 4S. Indeed, if the latest version of Apple's

mobile operating system is any guide, the newest iPhone may not look that much

different from smartphones Apple sold over three years ago. Granted, the screen is

expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isn't

expected to be very different.

但创造这项纪录的新款iPhone本身却可能只是iPhone 4S的“增量升级”版。实际

上，如果从苹果最新版移动操作系统来判断的话，那么新款iPhone可能与苹果过去三年

来售出的智能手机并无太大差别。当然，预计屏幕会变大，机身会变薄，但实际用户体验

可能不会有太大不同。

In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that 'it just

works,' notes analyst Neil Mawston of research firm Strategy Analytics. The

hardware, software and Apple services like iTunes are tightly integrated and easy

to use, making the device appealing to a huge swath of non-techie users. That is

opposed to, say, devices running Google's Android operating system, where the

ability to customize can complicate the user experience.

市场研究公司Strategy Analytics的分析师莫斯顿(Neil Mawston)指出，从某种意义

上说，这是件好事，因为iPhone如此受欢迎的原因之一是它很好用。iPhone的硬件、软

件和苹果iTunes等服务融为一体，使用方便，因此大量并非热衷电子产品的用户也为之着

迷。与之形成对比的是搭载谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系统的手机，这些产品的定

制功能可能会使用户体验复杂化。

In another sense, sticking to the iPhone's traditional design is a problem,

giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone

operating system that Nokia uses has 'live tiles' that display useful information or

photos directly on the device's home screen, not just dummy icons you have to

2024年3月30日发(作者：堂春燕)

iPhone增量式改变或将令苹果面临风险

The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It may also prove the

moment to dump Apple shares.

新iPhone一定会打破之前的销售纪录。除此之外，它也提醒我们，可能到了卖出苹

果(Apple)股票的时候了。

Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined,

Apple executives have joked internally according to recent trial testimony. And it

isn't crazy to believe exponential growth can continue for at least one more.

Combine pent-up demand among existing iPhone users looking to upgrade, with

the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the world's

largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results.

据前不久的庭审证词显示，苹果高管在公司内部开玩笑时曾说，每款新iPhone的销

量都是之前所有几代产品的销量之和。认为至少另一款iPhone的销量也将呈现出这种增

长模式并非不切实际的想法。那些想让手里iPhone更新换代的用户具有潜在需求，再加

上新机型可能最终将与全球最大无线运营商中国移动(China Mobile)的网络兼容，基于这

两个因素，投资者可以期待新iPhone异常火爆的销售情况。

But the device setting those records is itself likely to be just an incremental

upgrade over its predecessor, the iPhone 4S. Indeed, if the latest version of Apple's

mobile operating system is any guide, the newest iPhone may not look that much

different from smartphones Apple sold over three years ago. Granted, the screen is

expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isn't

expected to be very different.

但创造这项纪录的新款iPhone本身却可能只是iPhone 4S的“增量升级”版。实际

上，如果从苹果最新版移动操作系统来判断的话，那么新款iPhone可能与苹果过去三年

来售出的智能手机并无太大差别。当然，预计屏幕会变大，机身会变薄，但实际用户体验

可能不会有太大不同。

In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that 'it just

works,' notes analyst Neil Mawston of research firm Strategy Analytics. The

hardware, software and Apple services like iTunes are tightly integrated and easy

to use, making the device appealing to a huge swath of non-techie users. That is

opposed to, say, devices running Google's Android operating system, where the

ability to customize can complicate the user experience.

市场研究公司Strategy Analytics的分析师莫斯顿(Neil Mawston)指出，从某种意义

上说，这是件好事，因为iPhone如此受欢迎的原因之一是它很好用。iPhone的硬件、软

件和苹果iTunes等服务融为一体，使用方便，因此大量并非热衷电子产品的用户也为之着

迷。与之形成对比的是搭载谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系统的手机，这些产品的定

制功能可能会使用户体验复杂化。

In another sense, sticking to the iPhone's traditional design is a problem,

giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone

operating system that Nokia uses has 'live tiles' that display useful information or

photos directly on the device's home screen, not just dummy icons you have to