2024年4月6日发(作者：敖黎明)
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Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic
Forecast Update
January 29, 2009
The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update is
part of the comprehensive Cisco VNI Forecast, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast
the impact of visual networking applications. This paper presents some of Cisco’s key
global mobile traffic projections and growth trends.
Executive Summary
Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
between 2008 and 2013. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 131 percent between 2008
and 2013, reaching over 2 exabytes per month by 2013.
Mobile data traffic will grow from 1 petabyte per month to 1 exabyte per month in half the
time it took fixed data traffic to do so. In the 7 years from 2005 to 2012, mobile data traffic will
have increased a thousand-fold. The Internet grew from 1 petabyte per month to 1 exabyte per
month in 14 years.
Almost 64 percent of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013. Mobile video will grow at
a CAGR of 150 percent between 2008 and 2013. Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any
application category measured within the Cisco VNI Forecast at this time.
Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over
80 percent of global mobile traffic by 2013. A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Blackberry
generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more
data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.
Latin America will have the strongest growth of any region at 166 percent CAGR, followed by
Asia Pacific (APAC) at 146 percent.
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© 2009 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public Information. Page 1 of 8
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APAC will account for one-third of all mobile data traffic by 2013. Together, Western Europe
and APAC will account for over 60 percent of global mobile data traffic.
Western Europe will have the most mobile video traffic of all regions in 2013. Mobile video
will account for 73 percent of mobile data traffic in Western Europe.
The Impact of Video and Advanced Devices on Mobile Traffic
According to the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, video will be responsible for the
majority of the traffic growth between 2008 and 2013. As Figure 1 shows, overall mobile data traffic
is expected to grow to 2 exabytes per month by 2013, and over 1.4 of those are due to mobile
video traffic.
Figure 1. Cisco Forecasts 2 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic in 2013
For more details, see Appendix B: Forecast and Methodology.
Source: Cisco, 2009
Figure 2 shows the devices responsible for mobile data traffic growth. Mobile broadband handsets
(speeds of 3.5G and higher) and portables will account for 83 percent of all mobile data traffic by
2013. This is primarily due to the much higher usage profile of laptops and the suitability of mobile
broadband handsets for high-speed, high-quality video.
© 2009 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public Information. Page 2 of 8
2024年4月6日发(作者：敖黎明)
White Paper
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic
Forecast Update
January 29, 2009
The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update is
part of the comprehensive Cisco VNI Forecast, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast
the impact of visual networking applications. This paper presents some of Cisco’s key
global mobile traffic projections and growth trends.
Executive Summary
Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
between 2008 and 2013. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 131 percent between 2008
and 2013, reaching over 2 exabytes per month by 2013.
Mobile data traffic will grow from 1 petabyte per month to 1 exabyte per month in half the
time it took fixed data traffic to do so. In the 7 years from 2005 to 2012, mobile data traffic will
have increased a thousand-fold. The Internet grew from 1 petabyte per month to 1 exabyte per
month in 14 years.
Almost 64 percent of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013. Mobile video will grow at
a CAGR of 150 percent between 2008 and 2013. Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any
application category measured within the Cisco VNI Forecast at this time.
Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over
80 percent of global mobile traffic by 2013. A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Blackberry
generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more
data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.
Latin America will have the strongest growth of any region at 166 percent CAGR, followed by
Asia Pacific (APAC) at 146 percent.
®
© 2009 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public Information. Page 1 of 8
White Paper
APAC will account for one-third of all mobile data traffic by 2013. Together, Western Europe
and APAC will account for over 60 percent of global mobile data traffic.
Western Europe will have the most mobile video traffic of all regions in 2013. Mobile video
will account for 73 percent of mobile data traffic in Western Europe.
The Impact of Video and Advanced Devices on Mobile Traffic
According to the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, video will be responsible for the
majority of the traffic growth between 2008 and 2013. As Figure 1 shows, overall mobile data traffic
is expected to grow to 2 exabytes per month by 2013, and over 1.4 of those are due to mobile
video traffic.
Figure 1. Cisco Forecasts 2 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic in 2013
For more details, see Appendix B: Forecast and Methodology.
Source: Cisco, 2009
Figure 2 shows the devices responsible for mobile data traffic growth. Mobile broadband handsets
(speeds of 3.5G and higher) and portables will account for 83 percent of all mobile data traffic by
2013. This is primarily due to the much higher usage profile of laptops and the suitability of mobile
broadband handsets for high-speed, high-quality video.
© 2009 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public Information. Page 2 of 8