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Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie--Princeton University's 2012 Baccalaureat

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2024年5月11日发(作者:进洛灵)

考试・新英语 麻辣汇 2012年第8期 

D o n,t E at Fo rt u n e,s C oo ki e 

Pri nceton Un iversity’S 20 12 Baccalau reateo Remarks 

by Michael Lewis 

畅销书《点球成金》(Moneybal1)出版于2oo3年,作者Michael 

Lewis在书中讲述了一支预算极少的棒球队在球队经理的带领下取 

得惊人成绩的真实故事。 

这一切似乎不应该发生。理论上,有钱的球队可以买到最好的球 

员,然后赢得所有的比赛,但事实上,“奥克兰运动家”队和预算高达1. 

2亿美元的纽约“洋基”队赢得比赛的次数是一样的! 

“奥克兰运动家”队的预算不到“洋基”队的三分之一,可以说是美 

国棒球界最穷的球队之一。但是球队专注于球员表现的数据分析,用 

有限的钱找到最合适的球员,从而组成能力完备的球队。 

抛开运动不说,既然身价数百万美元的球员的价值在不同人眼里 

都不尽相同,何况是生活中的普通人。 

普林斯顿大学是美国八所常春藤盟校之一,2012年录取的本科 

生人数2000余人,录取率仅7.9%。Lewis是普林斯顿大学的校友,本科四年学习冷门的艺术史,论 

文答辩时,导师曾建议他“不要以写作为职业”。毕业后不知道该做什么的他,选择了读研究生,转修 

经济。但是这四年的本科学习使他认识了自己——他想写作。 

陆续的,从最早的Liar’sPoker(1989),到Moneyball、TheBig Shot(2OLO),Lewis写出的畅销书 

已有四五本,其中两本还被改编为剧本拍摄成电影。 

ewLis无疑是成功的,而同时,六零年生人Lewis开始反思自己的人生。作为演讲嘉宾,在母校 

普林斯顿大学(Princeton)2012年的毕业典礼上,他接连问出自己人生中的几个幸运的“如果”。 

Lewis觉得自己之所以成功是因为他是幸运的,他告诉台下的天之骄子:生活的结果,虽不是完全随 

机的,却掺杂了很多运气成分。最重要的,是要认识到,如果你获得成功,你也同时曾获得好运—— 

而运气带来义务。你欠了一笔债,不只是欠你的神。你也欠那些没你那么好运的人的债。 

而这就是我们常说的人的社会责任。 

r hank you.President Tilghman.TrusteesO and Friends.Parents of the Class of 2012.Above 

● 

▲ 

all,Members of the Princeton Class of 2012.Give yourself a round of applause.(cheers 

and applause)The next time you look around a church and see everyone dressed in black 

o baccalaureate:学士学位授予仪式的。 

9 trustee:Atrusteeis someonewitl1legal control ofmoney or propertythatis kept orinvestedfor another person, 

company,or organization. 

6 

Your future will always be the outcome of the decisions you make in the present.You

●_—— 

r life is In your handsl。 

你 

未来总是取决于你现在做出的每一个决定,命运掌握在你自己手中! 

2012年第8期 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

考试.新英语 

it’11 be awkward to cheer.(1aughter)F ̄joy the moment. 

Thirtyyears ago I sat where you sat.I must have listened to some older person share his life 

experience.But I don’t remember a word of it.I can’t even tell you who spoke.What I do 

remember,vividly,is graduation.I'm told you’re meant to be excited,perhaps even relieved,and 

maybe all ofyou are.1 wasn’t.1 was totally outraged0.Here I’d gone and given them four of the 

best years of my life and this is how they thanked me for it.By kicking me out. 

At that moment 1 was sure of only one thing:1 was of no possible economic value to the outside 

world.I'd majored in art history,for a start.Even then this was regarded as an act of insani . 

(1aughter)1 was almost certaily nless prepared or fthe marketplace than most of ou.Yety somehow 

I have wound up rich and famous.(1aughter and applause)We11,sort of.I'm going to explain, 

briefly,how that happened.1 want ou yto understand just how mysterious careers can be。before 

ou ygo out and have one yourself. 

I graduated from Princeton wihoutt ever having published a word of anything,anywhere

I didn’t 

write for the Prince,or for anyone else.But at Princeton,studying art history

I felt the first 

twingeo of literary ambition.It happened while working on my senior thesis

My adviser was a 

truly gifted professor,an archaeologistO named mliam Childs

The thesis tried to explain how the 

Italian sculptor Donatello used Greek and Roman sculpture---——which is actually totally beside the 

point,but I've always wanted to tell someone.(1aughter)God knows what Professor Chi1ds actually 

thought of it,but he helped me to become engrossed@.More than engrossed:obsessed ̄

When I 

handed it in I new kwhat 1 wanted to do or fthe rest of mylife:to write senior heses

1aughter)Or. 

to put it diferently:to write books. 

Then 1 went to my thesis defense.It was just a few yards rfom here.in McCormick Hal1.I listened 

and waited or Pfrofessor Childs to say how well written my thesis was

He didn’t.And so after 

about 45 inutesm I finally said,“So.Ⅶlat did ou tyhiI of the writing?” 

“Put it this way'’he said.“Never try to make a livig nat it.”(1aughter) 

nd AI didn’t—not really.I did what everyone does who has no idea what to do ith twhemselves: 

1 went to graduate schoo1.1 wrote at ights,wnithout much effect,maily nbecause I hadn’t the ifrst 

clue what I should write about.One night 1 was invited to a dinner.where I sat next to the ifwe f o

a big sh0t at a giant Wall Street investment bank,called Salomon Brothers.She more or lsse forced 

her husband to give me a job.I knew next to nothing about Salomon Brothers.But Salomon 

Brothers happened to be where l Street was beig nreinvented--into the place we have lla come 

o outraged:If you are outraged by something.it makes ou extyremely shocked and angry

. 

o insanity:=madness 

O twinge:A twinge is a sudden sharp feeling or emotion,usually an unpleasant one

. 

o archaeologist:考古学家。 

o engrossed:If you are engrossed in something.it holds your aRention completely

. 

o obsessed:If someone is obses ̄

hitnk about anything else. 

with a person or thing.they keep thinking about them and find it difficult to 

。 Be thankful for hard times in your life.Try not to look at the 

grow and learn.感激生命中那些艰难的岁月,别把它们当成坏事,而应当看成是学习、成长的机会。 

Z 

考试・新英语 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

2012年第8期 

to know and love.When I got there 1 was assigned@.almost 

arbitrarilye,to the very best jb ion which to observe the growing 

madness:th turned me into the house expert on derivatives@.A 

year and a half later Salomon Brothers was handing me a check 

for hundreds of thousands of dollars to give advice about 

deriatvives to professional investors. 

Now I had something to write about:Salomon Brothers.Wall Street 

ad behcome so unhinged@that it was paying recent Princeton 

graduates who knew nothing about money small fortunes to pretend 

t0 be experts about money.I'd stumbled into@my next senior thesis. 

Moneyball:TheArt of 

Winning an Unfair Game 

I called up my father.I told him 1 was going to quit thisjob hat t

now promised me millions of dollars to write a book for an 

advance f o40 grand.There was a long pause on he tother end of 

the line.“You ightjusmt want to hitnk about that,”he said.(1aughter) 

“Why?” 

“Stay at Salomon Brothers lO years,make your fortune,and then write your books,”he said. 

I didn’t need to think about it.I knew what intellectual passion felt like~because I'd felt it here. 

at Princeton—and 1 wanted to feel it again.1 was 26 years old.Had 1 waited until 1 was 36,1 

would never have done it.1 would have forgotten the feeling. 

The book 1 wrote was called“Liar’s Poker.”It sold a million copis.1e was 28 years old.I ad a hcarter, 

a littlefame,a small ortfune and a newlife narratives.All fa osuddenpeople weretelling me 1 wasbom 

t0 be a writer.This was absurd.Even I could see there was another,truer narrative,with luck as its 

theme.What were the odds of beig seatend at that dinner next to that Salomon Brothers lady?Of 

landing inside he tbest Wall Street ifrm from which to write he tstory f on aage?Oflndiang in he tseat 

wih tthe best viw eftohe business?Of having parents who didn’t disinherits me but instead s ̄ghed nd a

said“doit ifyou must?”Ofhaving adthhat sense fmusto kindld einside me by a professor f oart ishtory 

t aPrinceton?Of avihng been lt einto Princeton in he tifrst place? 

This isn’t just false humility.It’s false humiliy wtith a point.(1aughter)My case illustrates how 

o assign..Ifyou assign apiece ofworkto someone,you givethemtheworktodo. 

o arbitrarily:Ifyou describe an action,rule,ordecision as arbitrary,youthinkthatitisnotbased on anyprinciple, 

plan,or system.It often seemsunfairbecauseofthis. 

o derivative:A derivative is something which has been developed or obtained from something else.这里指衍生性金 

融商品。 

O unhinged:Ifyoudescn%e sonleone’sbehaviourorperformance as unhinged,)IcII1 arecriitcalofitbecauseit see ̄nswildand 

uncontrollable.UOURNAUSM) 

O stumbledinto:Ifyou stumble,you putyourfoot down awkwardlywhileyou arew她

o narrative..Anarrativeis a storyor an ac{x]nnt ofa series ofevents. 

叫running and nearlyfall o眦 

o disinherit:Ifyon disinherit sonleone such as your son or daughter,you arrange that they will not become he ownetr of 

moneyand propertyafter your death,usuallybecausetheyhave done somethalgthatyou do not approveof. 

旦 

只后悔,明明有机会却没去做的事。 

I' 

2。 2年第8期 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

考试.新英语 

SUCCESS is always rationalized@.People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck 

especially successful people.As they age,and succeed,people feel their Success was 

somehow inevitable.They donv’t want to acknowledge the role played by accident in their 

Iives.There is a reason for this:the world does not want to acknowledge it either. 

1 wrote a book about this.called“Moneybal1.’’It was ostensiblye about baseball 

but was in fact about something else.There are poor teams and rich teams in 

professional baseball,and they spend radically diferent suins of money on heitr 

players.When1wrotemybookthe richestteaminprofessionalbaseball,theNew 

York Yankees,was then spending about¥20 million on its 25 players.The 

poorest team,the Oaklnd A'as,was spending about¥3o million.And yet the 

Oakland team was winnig nas many games s ahe tYankees。__——and more than lla 

he tother richer teams. 

hiTs isn’t supposed to happen.In theory,the rich teams should buy the best 

players and in alwl the time.But the Oakland team had figured something 

out:the rich teams didn’t really understand who the best baseball players 

布拉德・皮特主演 

的同名电影海报 

were.The players were misvalued.And the biggest single reason they were misvalued was that the 

experts did not pay suficifent attention to the role of luck in baseball success.Players got given 

credit for things they did that depended on the performance of others:pitchers got paid for 

winning games,hitters got paid for knocking in runners on base.Players got blamed and credited 

or events fbeyond their contro1.Where balls that got hit happened to land on the ifeld,for example. 

Forget baseball,forget sports.Here you had hese cortporate employees,paid millions of dollars a year. 

heTy were doing exactly he StalTlejob that people in their business had been doing forever.In front of 

millions of people,who evaluate their every move.They had statistics attached to e、硼 

And yet hety were miswalued。_—_—because he tider wworld was blind to heitr luck 

This had been going on or fa century.Right under all of our noses.And no one noticed—until it 

paid a poor team so well to notice that they could not afford not to notice.And you have to ask:if 

hety dick 

a professional athlete paid millions of dollars can be misvalued who can’t be?If the supposedly 

pure meritocracy of professional sports can’t distinguish between lucky and good,who can? 

The“Moneyball”story has practical implications.If you use better data.you can ifnd better values; 

there are always market ineficifencies to exploit,and so on.But it has a broader and less practical 

message:don’t be deceived by life’s outcomes。Life’s outcomes,while not entirely random, 

have a huge amount of luck baked into them.Above all,recognize that if you have had 

Success,you have also had luck——and with luck comes obligation.You owe a debt,and not 

just to your Gods.You owe a debt to the unlucky. 

o rationalized:If you try to rationalize attitudes or actions that are diiculft to accept,you think of reasons to justify 

or explain them. 

o ostensibly:Ostensibleisusedtodescribe someflangthat se瞰】stobetrueoris ofieifaUy statedtobetrue,but aboutwhich 

ou yor other peoplehave doubts.(FORMAL) 

; 

believe that happiness is waiting.无论下多久的雨,最后都会有彩虹;无论你多么悲伤,要相信幸福在前方等候。 

考试.新英语 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

2012年第8期 

I make this point because—along、^,itll this speech—it is 

something that will be easy for you to forget. 

I nowlive in Berkeley,California.A few years ago,just a fw eblocks 

from my home,a pair of researchers in the Cal psychology 

department staged an experiment.They began by grabbing students, 

as lab rats.Then they broke he sttudents into teams,segregatedo y b

se Three men,orthree wome ̄perteam.Thentheyputthese teams 

ftohree into a room,and arbitrarily assigned one of he tthree to act 

s aleader.Then hety gave hem stome complicatd morale problem to 

sole:svay what should be done about academic cheating,or how to regulate dr ̄ang on campus. 

Exactly 30 minutes intothe problem-olsvingthe researchers ntierruptd eeach group.Theyenteredthe room 

beaIiIlg a plate of c(g ̄es.Four cookis.Tehe team coBsitsl ̄of three people,but there were these four 

cookies.Everyteam member obviously got one cookie,but that left a fourth cookie,just sit呱there.It 

houlsd have been awkward.But it wasn't.Wih itncredible consistency the person arbitrarily appointed 

lader eof the group grabbed the fourth cookie,and ate it.Not only ate it,but ate it wih gustto¥:lips 

smack ̄mouth open,drool at he tc0 [1Iers oftheir mouths.In he tend all that was left ofthe extra cookie 

were crumbs on he tlader’es shirt. 

This leader had performed no specil atask.He had no special virtue.He’d been chosen at random, 

30 minutes earlier.His status was nothing but luck.But it still left him with the sense that the 

cookie should be his. 

This experiment hdps to explain Wall Street bonuses and CEO pay,and I'm sure lots of other 

human behavior.But it also is relevant to new graduates of Princeton University.In a general sort 

of way you have been appointed the leader of the group.Your appointment may not be 

entirely arbitrary.But you must sense its arbitrary aspect:you are the lucky few.Lucky in 

your perntes,lucky in your country,lucky that a place like Princeton exists that can take in 

lucky people,introduce them to other lucky people,and increase their chances of becoming 

even luckier.Lucky that you live in the ichesrt society the world has ever seen,in a time when no 

one actually expects you to sacrifice your interests to anythig.n 

触l of you have been faced itwh the extra cookie.Al1 of ou wyill be faced with many more of them. 

In time you ilwl ind fit easy to assume that ou ydeserve the extra cookie.For all I know,you may. 

But you’ll be happier,and the world ilwl be better off,if you at least pretend that ou don’yt. 

Never forget:In the nation’s service.In the service of lla nations. 

hank Tyou. 

Andgoodluck.◆ 

O segregate:To 9叼怕掣Itetwo groups ofpeople ortl ̄ngs meanstok印themphysicallyapartfrom each other 

o gusto:Ifyoudo so ̄hmg、II『ith g嶂 you oidtwih tel ̄geticand e ̄thusiastic匝j哪rI1f . 

!Q 

能阻止你得到它。 

某样东西,没有什么・ 

2024年5月11日发(作者:进洛灵)

考试・新英语 麻辣汇 2012年第8期 

D o n,t E at Fo rt u n e,s C oo ki e 

Pri nceton Un iversity’S 20 12 Baccalau reateo Remarks 

by Michael Lewis 

畅销书《点球成金》(Moneybal1)出版于2oo3年,作者Michael 

Lewis在书中讲述了一支预算极少的棒球队在球队经理的带领下取 

得惊人成绩的真实故事。 

这一切似乎不应该发生。理论上,有钱的球队可以买到最好的球 

员,然后赢得所有的比赛,但事实上,“奥克兰运动家”队和预算高达1. 

2亿美元的纽约“洋基”队赢得比赛的次数是一样的! 

“奥克兰运动家”队的预算不到“洋基”队的三分之一,可以说是美 

国棒球界最穷的球队之一。但是球队专注于球员表现的数据分析,用 

有限的钱找到最合适的球员,从而组成能力完备的球队。 

抛开运动不说,既然身价数百万美元的球员的价值在不同人眼里 

都不尽相同,何况是生活中的普通人。 

普林斯顿大学是美国八所常春藤盟校之一,2012年录取的本科 

生人数2000余人,录取率仅7.9%。Lewis是普林斯顿大学的校友,本科四年学习冷门的艺术史,论 

文答辩时,导师曾建议他“不要以写作为职业”。毕业后不知道该做什么的他,选择了读研究生,转修 

经济。但是这四年的本科学习使他认识了自己——他想写作。 

陆续的,从最早的Liar’sPoker(1989),到Moneyball、TheBig Shot(2OLO),Lewis写出的畅销书 

已有四五本,其中两本还被改编为剧本拍摄成电影。 

ewLis无疑是成功的,而同时,六零年生人Lewis开始反思自己的人生。作为演讲嘉宾,在母校 

普林斯顿大学(Princeton)2012年的毕业典礼上,他接连问出自己人生中的几个幸运的“如果”。 

Lewis觉得自己之所以成功是因为他是幸运的,他告诉台下的天之骄子:生活的结果,虽不是完全随 

机的,却掺杂了很多运气成分。最重要的,是要认识到,如果你获得成功,你也同时曾获得好运—— 

而运气带来义务。你欠了一笔债,不只是欠你的神。你也欠那些没你那么好运的人的债。 

而这就是我们常说的人的社会责任。 

r hank you.President Tilghman.TrusteesO and Friends.Parents of the Class of 2012.Above 

● 

▲ 

all,Members of the Princeton Class of 2012.Give yourself a round of applause.(cheers 

and applause)The next time you look around a church and see everyone dressed in black 

o baccalaureate:学士学位授予仪式的。 

9 trustee:Atrusteeis someonewitl1legal control ofmoney or propertythatis kept orinvestedfor another person, 

company,or organization. 

6 

Your future will always be the outcome of the decisions you make in the present.You

●_—— 

r life is In your handsl。 

你 

未来总是取决于你现在做出的每一个决定,命运掌握在你自己手中! 

2012年第8期 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

考试.新英语 

it’11 be awkward to cheer.(1aughter)F ̄joy the moment. 

Thirtyyears ago I sat where you sat.I must have listened to some older person share his life 

experience.But I don’t remember a word of it.I can’t even tell you who spoke.What I do 

remember,vividly,is graduation.I'm told you’re meant to be excited,perhaps even relieved,and 

maybe all ofyou are.1 wasn’t.1 was totally outraged0.Here I’d gone and given them four of the 

best years of my life and this is how they thanked me for it.By kicking me out. 

At that moment 1 was sure of only one thing:1 was of no possible economic value to the outside 

world.I'd majored in art history,for a start.Even then this was regarded as an act of insani . 

(1aughter)1 was almost certaily nless prepared or fthe marketplace than most of ou.Yety somehow 

I have wound up rich and famous.(1aughter and applause)We11,sort of.I'm going to explain, 

briefly,how that happened.1 want ou yto understand just how mysterious careers can be。before 

ou ygo out and have one yourself. 

I graduated from Princeton wihoutt ever having published a word of anything,anywhere

I didn’t 

write for the Prince,or for anyone else.But at Princeton,studying art history

I felt the first 

twingeo of literary ambition.It happened while working on my senior thesis

My adviser was a 

truly gifted professor,an archaeologistO named mliam Childs

The thesis tried to explain how the 

Italian sculptor Donatello used Greek and Roman sculpture---——which is actually totally beside the 

point,but I've always wanted to tell someone.(1aughter)God knows what Professor Chi1ds actually 

thought of it,but he helped me to become engrossed@.More than engrossed:obsessed ̄

When I 

handed it in I new kwhat 1 wanted to do or fthe rest of mylife:to write senior heses

1aughter)Or. 

to put it diferently:to write books. 

Then 1 went to my thesis defense.It was just a few yards rfom here.in McCormick Hal1.I listened 

and waited or Pfrofessor Childs to say how well written my thesis was

He didn’t.And so after 

about 45 inutesm I finally said,“So.Ⅶlat did ou tyhiI of the writing?” 

“Put it this way'’he said.“Never try to make a livig nat it.”(1aughter) 

nd AI didn’t—not really.I did what everyone does who has no idea what to do ith twhemselves: 

1 went to graduate schoo1.1 wrote at ights,wnithout much effect,maily nbecause I hadn’t the ifrst 

clue what I should write about.One night 1 was invited to a dinner.where I sat next to the ifwe f o

a big sh0t at a giant Wall Street investment bank,called Salomon Brothers.She more or lsse forced 

her husband to give me a job.I knew next to nothing about Salomon Brothers.But Salomon 

Brothers happened to be where l Street was beig nreinvented--into the place we have lla come 

o outraged:If you are outraged by something.it makes ou extyremely shocked and angry

. 

o insanity:=madness 

O twinge:A twinge is a sudden sharp feeling or emotion,usually an unpleasant one

. 

o archaeologist:考古学家。 

o engrossed:If you are engrossed in something.it holds your aRention completely

. 

o obsessed:If someone is obses ̄

hitnk about anything else. 

with a person or thing.they keep thinking about them and find it difficult to 

。 Be thankful for hard times in your life.Try not to look at the 

grow and learn.感激生命中那些艰难的岁月,别把它们当成坏事,而应当看成是学习、成长的机会。 

Z 

考试・新英语 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

2012年第8期 

to know and love.When I got there 1 was assigned@.almost 

arbitrarilye,to the very best jb ion which to observe the growing 

madness:th turned me into the house expert on derivatives@.A 

year and a half later Salomon Brothers was handing me a check 

for hundreds of thousands of dollars to give advice about 

deriatvives to professional investors. 

Now I had something to write about:Salomon Brothers.Wall Street 

ad behcome so unhinged@that it was paying recent Princeton 

graduates who knew nothing about money small fortunes to pretend 

t0 be experts about money.I'd stumbled into@my next senior thesis. 

Moneyball:TheArt of 

Winning an Unfair Game 

I called up my father.I told him 1 was going to quit thisjob hat t

now promised me millions of dollars to write a book for an 

advance f o40 grand.There was a long pause on he tother end of 

the line.“You ightjusmt want to hitnk about that,”he said.(1aughter) 

“Why?” 

“Stay at Salomon Brothers lO years,make your fortune,and then write your books,”he said. 

I didn’t need to think about it.I knew what intellectual passion felt like~because I'd felt it here. 

at Princeton—and 1 wanted to feel it again.1 was 26 years old.Had 1 waited until 1 was 36,1 

would never have done it.1 would have forgotten the feeling. 

The book 1 wrote was called“Liar’s Poker.”It sold a million copis.1e was 28 years old.I ad a hcarter, 

a littlefame,a small ortfune and a newlife narratives.All fa osuddenpeople weretelling me 1 wasbom 

t0 be a writer.This was absurd.Even I could see there was another,truer narrative,with luck as its 

theme.What were the odds of beig seatend at that dinner next to that Salomon Brothers lady?Of 

landing inside he tbest Wall Street ifrm from which to write he tstory f on aage?Oflndiang in he tseat 

wih tthe best viw eftohe business?Of having parents who didn’t disinherits me but instead s ̄ghed nd a

said“doit ifyou must?”Ofhaving adthhat sense fmusto kindld einside me by a professor f oart ishtory 

t aPrinceton?Of avihng been lt einto Princeton in he tifrst place? 

This isn’t just false humility.It’s false humiliy wtith a point.(1aughter)My case illustrates how 

o assign..Ifyou assign apiece ofworkto someone,you givethemtheworktodo. 

o arbitrarily:Ifyou describe an action,rule,ordecision as arbitrary,youthinkthatitisnotbased on anyprinciple, 

plan,or system.It often seemsunfairbecauseofthis. 

o derivative:A derivative is something which has been developed or obtained from something else.这里指衍生性金 

融商品。 

O unhinged:Ifyoudescn%e sonleone’sbehaviourorperformance as unhinged,)IcII1 arecriitcalofitbecauseit see ̄nswildand 

uncontrollable.UOURNAUSM) 

O stumbledinto:Ifyou stumble,you putyourfoot down awkwardlywhileyou arew她

o narrative..Anarrativeis a storyor an ac{x]nnt ofa series ofevents. 

叫running and nearlyfall o眦 

o disinherit:Ifyon disinherit sonleone such as your son or daughter,you arrange that they will not become he ownetr of 

moneyand propertyafter your death,usuallybecausetheyhave done somethalgthatyou do not approveof. 

旦 

只后悔,明明有机会却没去做的事。 

I' 

2。 2年第8期 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

考试.新英语 

SUCCESS is always rationalized@.People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck 

especially successful people.As they age,and succeed,people feel their Success was 

somehow inevitable.They donv’t want to acknowledge the role played by accident in their 

Iives.There is a reason for this:the world does not want to acknowledge it either. 

1 wrote a book about this.called“Moneybal1.’’It was ostensiblye about baseball 

but was in fact about something else.There are poor teams and rich teams in 

professional baseball,and they spend radically diferent suins of money on heitr 

players.When1wrotemybookthe richestteaminprofessionalbaseball,theNew 

York Yankees,was then spending about¥20 million on its 25 players.The 

poorest team,the Oaklnd A'as,was spending about¥3o million.And yet the 

Oakland team was winnig nas many games s ahe tYankees。__——and more than lla 

he tother richer teams. 

hiTs isn’t supposed to happen.In theory,the rich teams should buy the best 

players and in alwl the time.But the Oakland team had figured something 

out:the rich teams didn’t really understand who the best baseball players 

布拉德・皮特主演 

的同名电影海报 

were.The players were misvalued.And the biggest single reason they were misvalued was that the 

experts did not pay suficifent attention to the role of luck in baseball success.Players got given 

credit for things they did that depended on the performance of others:pitchers got paid for 

winning games,hitters got paid for knocking in runners on base.Players got blamed and credited 

or events fbeyond their contro1.Where balls that got hit happened to land on the ifeld,for example. 

Forget baseball,forget sports.Here you had hese cortporate employees,paid millions of dollars a year. 

heTy were doing exactly he StalTlejob that people in their business had been doing forever.In front of 

millions of people,who evaluate their every move.They had statistics attached to e、硼 

And yet hety were miswalued。_—_—because he tider wworld was blind to heitr luck 

This had been going on or fa century.Right under all of our noses.And no one noticed—until it 

paid a poor team so well to notice that they could not afford not to notice.And you have to ask:if 

hety dick 

a professional athlete paid millions of dollars can be misvalued who can’t be?If the supposedly 

pure meritocracy of professional sports can’t distinguish between lucky and good,who can? 

The“Moneyball”story has practical implications.If you use better data.you can ifnd better values; 

there are always market ineficifencies to exploit,and so on.But it has a broader and less practical 

message:don’t be deceived by life’s outcomes。Life’s outcomes,while not entirely random, 

have a huge amount of luck baked into them.Above all,recognize that if you have had 

Success,you have also had luck——and with luck comes obligation.You owe a debt,and not 

just to your Gods.You owe a debt to the unlucky. 

o rationalized:If you try to rationalize attitudes or actions that are diiculft to accept,you think of reasons to justify 

or explain them. 

o ostensibly:Ostensibleisusedtodescribe someflangthat se瞰】stobetrueoris ofieifaUy statedtobetrue,but aboutwhich 

ou yor other peoplehave doubts.(FORMAL) 

; 

believe that happiness is waiting.无论下多久的雨,最后都会有彩虹;无论你多么悲伤,要相信幸福在前方等候。 

考试.新英语 麻辣汇 

Hotpot 

2012年第8期 

I make this point because—along、^,itll this speech—it is 

something that will be easy for you to forget. 

I nowlive in Berkeley,California.A few years ago,just a fw eblocks 

from my home,a pair of researchers in the Cal psychology 

department staged an experiment.They began by grabbing students, 

as lab rats.Then they broke he sttudents into teams,segregatedo y b

se Three men,orthree wome ̄perteam.Thentheyputthese teams 

ftohree into a room,and arbitrarily assigned one of he tthree to act 

s aleader.Then hety gave hem stome complicatd morale problem to 

sole:svay what should be done about academic cheating,or how to regulate dr ̄ang on campus. 

Exactly 30 minutes intothe problem-olsvingthe researchers ntierruptd eeach group.Theyenteredthe room 

beaIiIlg a plate of c(g ̄es.Four cookis.Tehe team coBsitsl ̄of three people,but there were these four 

cookies.Everyteam member obviously got one cookie,but that left a fourth cookie,just sit呱there.It 

houlsd have been awkward.But it wasn't.Wih itncredible consistency the person arbitrarily appointed 

lader eof the group grabbed the fourth cookie,and ate it.Not only ate it,but ate it wih gustto¥:lips 

smack ̄mouth open,drool at he tc0 [1Iers oftheir mouths.In he tend all that was left ofthe extra cookie 

were crumbs on he tlader’es shirt. 

This leader had performed no specil atask.He had no special virtue.He’d been chosen at random, 

30 minutes earlier.His status was nothing but luck.But it still left him with the sense that the 

cookie should be his. 

This experiment hdps to explain Wall Street bonuses and CEO pay,and I'm sure lots of other 

human behavior.But it also is relevant to new graduates of Princeton University.In a general sort 

of way you have been appointed the leader of the group.Your appointment may not be 

entirely arbitrary.But you must sense its arbitrary aspect:you are the lucky few.Lucky in 

your perntes,lucky in your country,lucky that a place like Princeton exists that can take in 

lucky people,introduce them to other lucky people,and increase their chances of becoming 

even luckier.Lucky that you live in the ichesrt society the world has ever seen,in a time when no 

one actually expects you to sacrifice your interests to anythig.n 

触l of you have been faced itwh the extra cookie.Al1 of ou wyill be faced with many more of them. 

In time you ilwl ind fit easy to assume that ou ydeserve the extra cookie.For all I know,you may. 

But you’ll be happier,and the world ilwl be better off,if you at least pretend that ou don’yt. 

Never forget:In the nation’s service.In the service of lla nations. 

hank Tyou. 

Andgoodluck.◆ 

O segregate:To 9叼怕掣Itetwo groups ofpeople ortl ̄ngs meanstok印themphysicallyapartfrom each other 

o gusto:Ifyoudo so ̄hmg、II『ith g嶂 you oidtwih tel ̄geticand e ̄thusiastic匝j哪rI1f . 

!Q 

能阻止你得到它。 

某样东西,没有什么・ 

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